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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  January 8, 2010 6:00pm-7:00pm EST

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insured by united healthcare insurance company. call now for your free information kit... and medicare guide and find out... how you could start saving. i'm jim cramer and welcome to my world. >> he's nuts. they oar nuts. they know nothing. >> there is a bull market somewhere. >> "mad money". you can't afford to miss it. >> other people want to make friends, i just want to make you money. call me 800-743-cnbc. sometimes i have no choice. sometimes i have to come out on friday afternoons and give you a game plan that involves conventional data points. even if the concept repels you
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or bores you. but that doesn't mean i have to give you conventional wisdom on how to view and analyze them or how to take action on them. especially as we have pronounced 2010 to be the year of active investing. everyone knows that i ashoe cliches on the show unless they are uttered by my idol or lady gaga or the artist who spells her name with a dollar sign. but the all important earnings season does kick off with alcoa on monday after the close. that means we got to focus on what the country's largest alum numb company will mean for the quarterlies. let's jot down aa. that's after the close. unlike performance of individual companies not commodities like the dollar or gold or oil,
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matters tremendously to all other sectors and the stocks in general, at least. hallelujah we have returned to a world where the business prospects of individual businesses as we saw today with united parcel and its surprise can actually impact the whole beautiful market. you know something? i think if ups, a stock i own from my trust which you can own along with me, if ups had presiden't screamed such great news, i think this market could have plummeted courtesy of the crumby federal unemployment rate that we got today. but instead of getting killed, the averages performed better than admirable. the nasdaq actually climbed 17 points. s&p a slight gain.
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most of the dow in perg tory. what a session considering that the employment number was such a disappointment. that's how important the reports of individual companies are in this market. that is good news for when alcoa reports on monday. i think they will talk about a resumption of worldwide demand. alcoa has not been bullish. given that aa has a battery of business that touches office to auto-construction, the potentially positive chatler matter and industrial stocks could get a win in the first week of this market. tuesday morning the bears. oh boy. the bears are going have a chance. they will have a chance to get negative. you know they are. a lot of them are not waiting. they will blast the housing market again even as everything is looking up when it comes to
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home sales and prices. the chance will come when kb homes reports. we need fewer houses being built. a healthy positive robust kb homes may actually not be good news. because if kb homes is getting bullish that means they will build more new homes. we need less inventory to recover, not more. if kb homes say that will be negative by the pundits but believe me, that's a positive and that will set something in motion. see the builders, if they start building could destroy the imbalance between too much supply and demand. if kb homes stays lukewarm or negative, then i think you should buy the two largest homeowners in the country, bank of america and wells fargo. wednesday won't be a stock day at all. it will be a fed day.
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because the fed unveils the thing that you probably heard of and not had a clue what it means. it is called the beige book. people constantly underrate the reports that the fed puts out. i scrutinize every single one and actually go to all the websites of the regional report. why? because they represent the single best and most unbiassed boots on the ground analysis of how is the country doing. how many times i come in here and thought something was biassed or wrong or too negative. that's not the case about the beige book. as the negativity vanished from the pages of the fed-based book. their reports got bullish so i got bullish. you can get a jump on me if you look them up when they come out in the afternoon. thursday and friday these will define the following week's market performances. in other words the week after. that's because intel reports --
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let me clear this so i can write it right. intc reports thursdays and j.p. morgan reports friday. all right? here are two stocks my travel trust owns because i think they will have monotsterous earnings. and riding the wonderful mobile internet tsunami and surfing on the strong demand for windows 7. most people are not expecting great numbers or a terrific outlook for intel. i am sticking my neck out here andle thing you i think the intel bears are going get shot. i think you can make money buying the stock at $20 with a 3% yield. friday's options separation rate the stock may get stuck. it could go up on monday.
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j.p. morgan will signal what is suddenly hot stocks have been saying since the year began. j.p. morgan has been going up. credit conditions are improving. no one talks about this and you will not hear this on any other show. defaults have peaked. business is getting better and better. that violates all the code of every journalist out there to say something positive. i just said it. i hope i can keep my job. i think the toughest chore that the ceo will have is down playing how truly spectacular his results are. the winds are so horrible that he cannot be that positive or he will draw the ire of the pelosi pound. i think the numbers will speak for themselves. j.p. morgan is one of the banks hurt by the price cutting. you will see the first real
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quarter without real competition and without t.a.r.p. payments and i think it will be magnificent. i think the stock will go $50 soon after the report. at least leaving the dungeon of the 40s where it has been in almost all of the second half of 2009. here is the bottom line of next week. everyone says earnings season is important but because stocks have been trading like commodities for so many years, log steps with oil or gold, earnings have become largely irrelevant as has earnings season. stocks have gone up in tandem with the zep zep futures or down and those are driven by commodities and the reports of individual companies until this year have had no pen action. you can hit the first pin and it doesn't mean anything and only limited sector pin action. that is until 2010.
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we are about to see the mostly truly significant earnings season. our game for next week focuses on earnings because at last that's where the money was. now i go first to jeremy in georgia. >> hey jim. >> same to you, partner. what else? >> feedback. >> i think we need to skip jeremy. i am probably one of four or five americans who understood exactly what he said. now larry? >> caller: hey there. >> what's shaking there partner. what do you got there midnight sun? >> caller: 30 degrees above zero from anchorage. you got to come up here and catch a 45 pound king salmon. >> you are probably sweating up there? >> caller: i could use warmer
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but most everybody else every place else is colder than we are. >> say hello to russia. >> caller: just out the door. i am trying to implement your recommendation of 20% of portfolios to non--u.s. companies. that is easy to do with foreign owned companies but there are a lot of american owned companies that earn money overseas. would it will appropriate to count as a non-u.s. investment that portion of profits that are derived from otherseas consumers or is the fact that the company is u.s.-owned and subject to u.s. tax laws, does that override where the company makes money? >> that is a considerate question. when altria is split in half, i own it for my because the yield is so good. you can get the international.
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but the stock that was done, coca-cola, that is an example of what you are talking about. i would take example of the fact that it was knocked down and do some buy out. be an active investor in 2010. focus on the year's earning season. my good plan is good things from alcoa, bad things for kb homes and fabulous things from japan morgan. >> coming up, is the economy stable or on shakey ground? either way cramer has got you covered. "%"%"%"%"%"%"%"%"%"%"%"%
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every day this week we have
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been talking about the big ten. the top investing themes of the year. to help you put together a solid portfolio for the year that just started. monday we focussed on the energy shortage. wednesday was glorious foreign investing. yesterday we looked at the mobile internet tsunami. today our theme is gold. the precious metal has been on a tare. i don't think gold is done. like i tell you in getting back here, i always advocate owning some gold and today i will explain how as part of any diversified portfolio because it is a great hedge about economic chaos. all of you people pouring money into bonds think that is safer
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than gold? we know a lot of you are doing that. you can manage your money yourself and gold is your vaccination against all kinds of problems. fort knox may be the best bank. remember he picked it up and he threw it. anyway, gold works coming and going. it has been rallying thanks to the fact that governments around the world have rolled out the printing presses to find huge stimulus programs and deficits that debase their currency. witness the weak green back. especially when the system is being flooded with new money. if and when the chinese allow their currency to be valued upwards. at the same time because gold is a hedge against inflation once
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economies around the world finally start heating up, we will get inflation which is fwound happen. that is another reason to own the precious metal now as the economic chaos reason will be taken away. typically we like to think of gold as insurance. it will go up when the stock portion goes down. lately gold has been going up as stocks go up, too. it is looking like a win/win. despite what the bears would have you believe, gold is more than a barometer of inflation and economic uncertainty. more and more have been buying gold as a part of a portfolio and that helped push the price up, not actual demand. net investment in gold increased five fold in 2008 to 1,077 tons. speculative positions are near a three-year high in 350,000
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contracts. that's over 1500 tons. the trend towards gold as an investment isn't stopping. it might seem ridiculous to buy the stuff, it has been a really great strategy. we favor buying low and selling high at "mad money" when we can. but buying high and going higher can still be a workable strategy. so what if it sounds nuts? we go with what works. skperve their mother has been buying it. it is as simple as that. more important than individuals investing the stuff are the foreign central banks and they have been buying and hording gold. they don't trust the currencies of other countries. in order to maintain their exchange rates. let's take india. the central bank bought a lot of
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gold from the imf and china and russia has v increased their gold. they want something real and hard. gold producers are bending against themselves. so at least they, too, obviously think gold prices are going higher. they have been wrong but i don't mind. the gold companies are not finding enough of the stuff to meet the demand. let's talk about the new global buyers. around the world you have emerging middle classes that love geeld and fear government intervention against wealth. something we know all too well with pelosi. i am talking china, india, and brazil. they are doing what most people do when they have lots of disposable income at one time. spending it in the most flashy, tasteless way possible. currencies, interest rates, this stuff is important. i don't want you to
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underestimate the power of bling. they call me mr. bling in the hood, particularly at the elks club. so, we know we want to own gold. the question is always how. which way do we do it? tonight i will go over the best ways to own gold for your portfolio. i have some mining stocks after the break. that is called a tease, by the way, and i am a first class tease. but first i want to focus on gold bullion. there are all kinds of problems mines can have mine shut downs or labor strikes. production is rarely certain. costs can skyrocket. if you just buy gold you won't have these problems. that's why i like, write this down, the sbdr gold shares. gld. george, larry, david. buys gold and moves in tandem. risk is a great proxy. it will go up one for one with
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gold. you don't want to buy the gold bars because then you have to pay to keep them in a depository bank. that is not the only way to expose yourself to gold but i do have a predilection for bullion. i love the smell of bullion. and i love it because of its thin nature. every portfolio should have gold in it as insurance against all the bad things that could happen and because we think because it is going higher. consider it your term life insurance. the easiest way is the stock that tracks it, the gld. but keep watching and it will give you the gold miners, too. after the breakly try to make you more money. >> coming up, the big ten continues. cramer has got the plays that could put a shine on your portfolio. could they lead you to a gold
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mine? and later, it's friday and that means cramer has dug deep to find you a brand new play. could it make you mad money? what are you doing...? calling chase sapphire, seeing if we have enough points to stay longer. now? you don't have enough time... and you have to push thos.. no buttons, someone answers every time. yeah, right... bet you a massage... yeah, ok.
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hi, julie... i have a question about my points. hi, what button do i press for a massage? hello? new chase sapphire... you call. we answer. no waiting. just press right here... go to chase what matters.
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listen up. you need gold in your portfolio.
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today's big ten theme for 2010. and i have just the stocks to help you do it. you know why we like gold. there is tremendous global demand for this stuff as people around the world buy more and more of it as a way to safeguard their wealth against a whole host of things. i have already told you about the most straightforward way to own gold. and gld is an etf that tracks the price which owns the gold bullion which is not to be confused with chicken bullion which is what i tried to do. this is not the only way. you can buy the stocks of gold miners but this is really complicated because you can only buy the very best of them and
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yours truly has had a hard time identifying the best. these stocks could get cru crushed -- crush ed -- okay. crushed for reasons that have nothing to do with the price of the commodity. mine shut downs. higher cost per execution. which ended 2009 which ended a teeny weany yellow polka dotted 6% because of a host of lame-o execution problems. gold miners are masters in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. frankly they are worth some of your time. the largest are generally diversified mining companies meaning they are not pure plays. everybody who watches the show knows that i like free port.
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that is fcs. they are the sixth largest gold producer in the world. main thing that it produces is red hot. much of that is because this company is in indonesia which is a short boat ride from china where so much of the demand for copper comes. china is the demand for copper and a demand for gold. the company's most recent quarter was just a monster. it was a thing of beauty. 73 cents earnings. also reinstated its dividend, al bee it at a low level. this is the one we recommend in getting back to even. itis eldorado, symbol ego.
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i first recommended on february 25, it is up 42% from when we last heard from the ceo on august 12 when the stock was at $10.41. you know why i think it still has a lot of upside? the best of the gold miners. what it takes to get the stuff out of the ground and into bullion, they are among the lowest for the business. for 2009, toronto dominion bank estimates the ounce. they expect $330 an ounce for 2010. the rest is 432 bucks an ounce. and they should all come in at $418. eldorado is much better than the average gold producer at producing the stuff. think how much money they could make per ounce with gold well north of $1,000. it is not just making money for
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the price of gold. many of these guys are run by ore. this year the gold production is about 96% so it is a growth stock and a gold stock. that is just massive. company is a big china play. 60% in people's republic. let's close this. what if you want to own a smaller gold mine. a lot of people keep calling in on those in the lightning round. i will not give you those. i think the risks are too high that you miss a move when gold moves up. you don't want to own a company that is dependent on one or two mines. we want to own a basket of them. the companies on average find and produce more gold. luckily for you someone else has already put that basket together into an etf. the market vectors junior gold
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miners. it is jdxj. george david exrah jay. i got this one from my expert who writes an etf newsletter this one let's you own 38 different small gold and silver miners. isn't that good? and you can't screw up. you can't own the one that finances all the gold we thought we had we don't. not every gold mine ser a r is tast if i waiting to happen. in the gdxj are worth making a speculative field. either way, remember this. i think you have got have at least 10% of your assets in gold. the world is too dangerous a place to have any less than that. and the profits are just too golden to pass up. why don't we start taking
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questions with josh in new york. josh? >> caller: hey, jim. a new york city paramedic boy ya to you. >> that's a cool job boo-yah. right back at you. >> caller: i am a long-time view viewer who held up 45%. >> while i make mistakes, i am making you a money and this man would not have volunteered that if i hadn't. >> caller: i definitely made money and picked up my book. >> this guy is a double threat. >> caller: my question is about pal. a while ago you mentioned would be a good back end play on coverage. my question is with the new etfs out and increased production, what do you think of this company now? >> i still like it. i tend not to talk about palladium, but this is a winner. it is rare that i say continue
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to put the money into this $4 little number but i think you should. thank you for calling it to our people's attention. let's go to carl in the cold state of wisconsin. carl? >> caller: jim, a snowy boo-yah to you from milwaukee. >> i will give you a big win this weekend nod boo-yah. i'm not kidding. i love your d. >> caller: here's my question. if i have equal shares of free port and pcu, the price of copper has risen substantially. >> big. >> caller: and freeport has risen substantially, too. what's the difference? >> first of all, freeport was pushed down by a lot of hedge funds. the company actually did not reassure you by cutting a
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dividend is making people nervous. at this price i like pcu if you like copper and fcs if you like the other. caller kaur boo-yah. >> boo-yah, rochelle. >> caller: i have to say thank you so much for giving us so much information and educating us. >> that's what i want. i am a coach now. i want them to be able to coach. that's how i was taught. >> caller: i want to ask about tcb. it seems like it has everything going for it. why is it so cheap? >> because it is so speculative and they tl is here is so littl known about it and it is a one-trick pony. i do not endorse it. i am sure you have a big profit. i would sell and move on. the last in the big ten week. you know where to go, is gold. if you want to be a gold digger,
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consider freeport, fcx, or eldorado, ego. and stay with cramer! coming up, feel the thunder approaching as jim takes lightning round from americans everywhere. can he handle the pressure? and later it's friday and that means cramer has dug deep to find you a brand new play. could it make you mad money?
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it is time! it is time for the lightning round on "mad money ". last one in the new year of this week. what do i do? how about rapid fire calls? you say the name of the stock and i say buy or sell. i do not know the stock or callers ahead of time. and then the lightning round is over. are you ready?
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i want to start with greg in ohio. greg? >> hello, mr. cramer. cincinnati bengals in the playoffs. >> he may not have won the super bowl yet. >> caller: what do you think about fifth third bank? >> a winner. i was thinking i remember when goldman saks came out at ten and said buy this one. really good piece out today. talking about what banks could do well in commercial does well. this one, $15. i really like it here. let's go ginnete also in ohio. >> caller: a big cleveland cavaliers boo-yah. >> go ahead, sorry.
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>> caller: i per chased dndn back in september around 29.5. now $24.75 it is finally up to $30. do you think it will go up? >> if they have the ultimate vaccine for cancer, you know this thing is going higher. i think you stay on it. let's see. this thing could go up 10 points. i think you are okay. let's just stay on it right now. let's go to james in california. >> caller: hey jim. big los angeles boo-yah. >> west coast boo-yah right back at you. >> caller: i would to know about cadbury. >> sell! so the upside is now limited. i do not believe that hershey
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will back it better. sell, sell, sell. bob? >> caller: jim cramer. >> a pharmaceutical. i have been colding it for a while. >> a 52 week high. not as big a portfolio as i would like. i think sell, sell, sell. come on smart fellow pennsylvaniian. let's make money. matt in colorado. matt? >> caller: yo jim. >> boo-yah bronco. >> caller: quick question in regards to getting into computer stores, western digital. >> i was amazed at the downgrade. western digital is it really just a terrific tech component. i did get a little frightened when goldman downgraded it.
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a little off the table. how about we finish up with jeff in colt mccoy country, jeff. >> caller: how are you? >> i am good. i was routing for ut last night. i can't route for dallas on saturday night. how can i help? >> caller: big boo-yah from texas, anywhere. i am here with my son who is a great fan of yours and watches your show every day. what are your thoughts on boeing. >> i believe that boeing is an $80 stock. we are at the beginning of a major seven year move. i say boo. this one is going higher. hold on to boeing. sit a great stock. stick with boeing.
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stick with cramer. >> besides the fact that it is the birthplace of giselle, my staff just wanted to roll soft footage behind me. look, i am a guy who loved models. why norway? not just for the hats. how does this stuff stay freshes? it is always months old. how about australia?
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is my one hair out of place? peru of which we could only find this one thing. okay? if this be a bear market then i say pass it to me like veal. ♪ >> i make my own mustard. mayo is too fattening. how ran said does that feel? how rancid? was it made recently? okay. good. all right. can i -- i was looking for something to drink. that was the problem. you can learn an awful lot from warren buffet and entertainer, lady gaga. ♪ i want your cycle my friend.
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sing it! i want your love. i also have a disco stick. don't ask me how i got one of those. i want you to listen to lady gaga. [ male announcer ] welcome to the now network. frannie, matt and james just got three of sprint's best 3g phones. frannie has the palm pre, which runs multiple apps at the same time. frannie! oh! [ male announcer ] james, the jet-setter, can call from just about anywhere in the world with the international tour.
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and matt has the customizable htc hero with google -- giving him access to thousands of apps. [ tires screech ] bringing you the first and only wireless 4g network, as well as the most impressive lineup of phones. sprint. the now network. deaf, hard-of-hearing and people with speech disabilities access
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back in september in a private moment i shared with you two of my girlfriends. i be a playa, especially for a 64-year-old man. they are two types of chemicals. tonight i am taking polyout again. the basis for the most popular plastics in the world, no disrespect to ethyl. a fabulous bet, a fabulous bet on america's economic recovery courtesy of my favorite chemical analyst who is a long-suffering jets fan who will have to keep on suffering after the weekend despite outrageous announcements
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that his team deserves to win. services and solutions, too. 10% of the market share in north america. this is a true plastic turn around story. one that many worry would have to file for bankruptcy. that's how bad things were. now it's back on its feet. before we get into what polydoes, i got to have you informed. i got to walk you through the plastics production process. so that you can actually understand the business of pol. is to buy a stock or tell you to buy a stock without knowing what the underlying company does. that is why i tell you you can
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do better than owning an index fund. whoever endorsed that strategy. it worked for a while and that failed. when something works. so, how is the plastic business work? you have all kinds of polys. they are used in everything from packaging to building and construction to providing insulation and flame and water resistance to providing durable lightweight materials. basically everything. everything is plastic. because they have direct access to the raw materials needed to produce plastics produced the majority of the building blocks combined. the polys are made by the oil
6:52 pm now you know what it does. it's in the distribution business. it provides the link between the large chemical producers and plastic processors. it helps the formulation technology, manufacturing, supply chain. poly one distributes more than 3500 grades of commodity grade resins. i want you to consider some of pol as the supermarket. maybe the toxic whole foods of the plastics game. it also has a chemical maker and has been shifting towards more specialty materials and away from much lower priced commodity plastics. it has undergone a huge turn around since 2006. that's when poly one brought in new management. it was bleeding red ink.
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now pol is focused on may going better quality products and making more money with the sales. which is why its earnings before interest and taxs hit a record high in this third quarter. so this a $7 stock making money. helped by additional expose sthour medical applications, packaging and consumer products. what is that? like soft materials in colgate tooth brushes. poly one products division, more sales. you have to speculate wisely. it's basically the company's vinyl business. i'm not talking about lp abouts. poly one vinyl business has the most exposure to the u.s. housing and auto markets. we know autos are coming back because the strength in ford. could take a while before construction starts to heat up again. one of the reasons why i think the stock is speculative. why come we like poly one right
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now just under 8 bucks? the company benefits from improving auto sales. 30% of its port 2308 i don't is directly linked to construction and transportation and it has more exposure when you count associated markets. this is a good way to play it. as for the housing, eventual all rebound. it's likely to favor lower end home which use more plastic. you have to understand, as someone who has invested for 30 years, no group in the economy, not metals, steels, auto, can have such stunning rebounds as the chemical companies when things get better. look at dow chemical. chemical companies soar and this speculative stock will soar right along with the group as the economic recovery becomes toeft more than just, well, me. it doesn't just gain thanks to improving economy. it's always ultimate self help plastics play, new management,
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four of the top 16 executives are still there. they focused on cross-selling, overhauling sale, cutting costs, transforming the business into one that's better, more focused on making money rather than profitless sales. restructuring saving the company. and some terrific acquisitions that could boost profit margins and earnings. all this in this one sub $8 stock. here's the bottom line. i know everyone's looking for recovery plays that haven't happened. focus on, wog smarter, not hearder. i want you to look no further than poly one, symbol pol. it's the only american pol that will make you money in 2010. "mad money" back after the break.
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what are you doing...? calling chase sapphire, seeing if we have enough points to stay longer. now? you don't have enough time... and you have to push all those buttons... no buttons, someone answers every time. yeah, right... bet you a massage... yeah, ok. hi, julie... i have a question about my points. hi, what button do i press for a massage?
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hello? new chase sapphire... you call. we answer. no waiting. just press right here... go to chase what matters.
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remember the big focus next week, intel. jpmorgan should be terrific. jpmorgan will not have any interest in telling you how great it is and ib tell could be held by the $20 strike 3r50is. i always like to say there's
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always a bull market somewhere and i from try to find it just for you right here on "mad money." i'm jim kram are and i'll see you monday. frgs up next, destimulate all of washington's tax and regulatory burdens to get america working again. meanwhile, stocks and profits trumped the lousy jobs report and the dems are going down in november. host: did the waltons take way too long to say goodnight? mom: g'night john boy. g'night mary ellen. mary ellen: g'night mama. g'night erin. elizabeth: g'night john boy. jim bob: g'night grandpa. elizabeth: g'night ben. jim bob:'night. elizabeth: g'night jim bob. jim bob: g'night everybody, grandpa: g'night everybody.


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